Научный журнал "Пространственная экономика" - Assessment of Briics Energy Transition Policies (Энергетический переход в странах БРИКС: сравнительный анализ политик)

Раздел	Статьи
Заглавие	Assessment of Briics Energy Transition Policies (Энергетический переход в странах БРИКС: сравнительный анализ политик)
Страницы	86-105
Автор	Варонг Мария Марлейн аспирант Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» ул. Родионова, 136, Нижний Новгород, 603093, Российская Федерация Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет Университетская наб., 7-9, Санкт-Петербург, 199034, Российская Федерация This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0009-0002-2964-8196
Аннотация	Достижение глобального энергетического перехода требует разработки многоаспектной политики, но общепринятый подход к международному сравнительному анализу часто терпит неудачу в развивающихся странах с различными институциональными траекториями и сильной зависимостью от ископаемого топлива. В настоящем исследовании системно оценивается долгосрочная макроэкономическая эффективность комплексных программ (портфелей) энергетической политики – рыночной, нерыночной и технологической поддержки – в экономиках расширенного БРИКС (Бразилия, Россия, Индия, Индонезия, Китай и Южная Африка). Предположение, касающееся экономической политики, заключается в том, что на структурно незрелых рынках нерыночные инструменты более эффективны, чем рыночные. Для нейтрализации ненаблюдаемых глобальных потрясений используется оценка динамических общих коррелированных эффектов по объединенной средней группе (DCCE-PMG), синтезированная с помощью анализа отношений Грея (GRA) для декомпозиции структурной политики в конкретной стране. Чтобы точно зафиксировать структурные сдвиги, произошедшие после пандемии, и устранить существующие эконометрические недостатки используется расширенный набор данных за период с 1996 по 2024 гг. Эмпирические оценки по методу DCCE-PMG показывают, что только строгие нерыночные командно-контрольные нормы оказывают статистически значимое положительное долгосрочное макроэкономическое воздействие на внедрение возобновляемых источников электроэнергии, в то время как рыночные механизмы и механизмы технологической поддержки остаются структурно незначительными без основополагающего применения. Декомпозиция по методу GRA наглядно демонстрирует эту макроэкономическую взаимосвязь, выявляя глубокую внутрипанельную неоднородность: Индия возглавляет сбалансированный переходный процесс; Китай извлекает выгоду из стратегической государственно-капиталистической асимметрии; Индонезия зависит от технологической поддержки; Россия преодолевает серьезные институциональные пробелы в области технологической поддержки; Бразилия испытывает проблемы с рыночной интеграцией из-за фрагментации сельского хозяйства; Южная Африка находится под давлением нерыночного регулирования. Эти выводы опровергают концепцию универсального глобального подхода к оценке экономической политики и доказывают, что долгосрочная устойчивость макроэкономики зависит от институционального потенциала на местах и создания специализированных нерыночных структур регулирования
УДК	339+338
JEL	Q42, Q48, C23, O44
DOI	https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.2.086-105
Ключевые слова	политика энергетического перехода, динамические модели панельных данных, согласованность комплекса мер политики, макроэкономические структурные сдвиги, расширенный БРИКС (Бразилия, Россия, Индия, Индонезия, Китай и Южная Африка)
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Для цитирования	Warong M.M. Assessment of BRIICS Energy Transition Policies // Пространственная экономика. 2026. Т. 22. № 2. С. 86–105. https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.2.086-105
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Финансирование
Поступила в редакцию	08.04.2026
Одобрена после рецензирования	21.05.2026
Принята к публикации	25.05.2026
Доступно онлайн	30.06.2026