In the section Surveys
Title of the article About Some Problems in Currency Exchange Sphere
Pages 152-164
Author 1 Mikhail Vladimirovich Ershov
Doctor of Economics, Director of Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
49 Leningradskiy Avenue, Moscow, Russia, 125993 (GSP-3)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0002-5811-9560
Author 2 Anna Stanislavovna Tanasova
Candidate of Economics, Deputy Head of Department of Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
49 Leningradskiy Avenue, Moscow, Russia, 125993 (GSP-3)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0001-9796-5762
Author 3 Victor Yuryevich Tatuzov
Candidate of Economics, Doctor of Economics (PhD) of Sorbonne, Leading Researcher of Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
49 Leningradskiy Avenue, Moscow, Russia, 125993 (GSP-3)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0002-7341-1340
Author 4 Mels Pavlovich Tskhovrebov
Candidate of Economics, Associate Scientist of Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
49 Leningradskiy Avenue, Moscow, Russia, 125993 (GSP-3)
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ORCID: 0000-0002-8775-4299
Abstract The new trend of global economic growth for now appears unstable. A certain threat to stability is represented by continuous growth of the world financial markets without significant correction, which leads to overheating of certain indicators. Besides, the growth of interest rates in the developed markets threatens the stability of currency in countries with developing markets, especially where floating exchange rate has been introduced. The risky situation is not helped by the tensions in geopolitics. External shocks will inevitably transfer on the internal economics of Russia due to free floating of the ruble. Currency is a significant channel of such transfer: any deterioration of situation in Russia would contribute to volatility of currency market and depreciation of ruble. The article analyzes the specifics of currency sphere in Russia today, studies negative and positive sides to ruble depreciation. The quality improvement and formation of comparative conditions in the currency market of Russia is necessary for stability and increasing rates of economy growth. Most branches of Russian economy benefit from stable ruble exchange rate. Adding to that, the expansion of economic sanctions announced by the USA to come into effect at the end of summer 2018 can contribute to volatility and further depreciation of the ruble. The Bank of Russia should take active measures towards ruble stability, prevention of depreciation and minimization of negative consequences for Russian economy. The article suggests several such measures to provide stability and prevent the growth of currency speculation: low currency position, lower leverage, Tobin tax, etc.
Code 339.7+336.7
JEL G15, N20, F33
DOI 10.14530/se.2018.3.152-164
Keywords exchange rate ♦ PPP ♦ financial markets ♦ exchange rate volatility ♦ depreciation of currency
Download SE.2018.3.152-164.Ershov.pdf
For citation Ershov M.V., Tanasova A.S., Tatuzov V.Yu., Tskhovrebov M.P. About Some Problems in Currency Exchange Sphere. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2018, no. 3, pp. 152-164. DOI: 10.14530/se.2018.3.152-164. (In Russian).
References 1. Baranova V., Prokhorova N. Changing Economic Policy is a Main Channel of Sanctions’ Influence on the Russian Economy. Analytical Credit Rating Agency. 2018. Available at: https://www.acra-ratings.ru/research/819 (accessed July 2018). (In Russian).
2. Monetary Policy Report. Bank of Russia, 2017, no. 2, 67 p. (In Russian).
3. The Dollar Strengthened after Statements of Trump. Interfaks = Interfax, 2018, 26 January. Available at: http://www.interfax.ru/business/597157 (accessed Februry 2018). (In Russian).
4. Ershov M.V. Global Financial Crisis. What’s Next? Moscow, 2011, 295 p. (In Russian).
5. Ershov M.V. Russia and the World: How Sustainable is Economic Growth? Risks and Barriers. Voprosy Ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2017, no. 12, pp. 63–80. (In Russian).
6. Ershov M.V., Tanasova A.S., Tatuzov V.Yu. Forecasts of Russian Regulators do Not Fully Take Into Account Some Important Factors. Bankovskoe Delo [Banking], 2017, no. 7, pp. 76–83. (In Russian).
7. Talking Trends. Research and Forecasting Department Bulletin. Bank of Russia, 2016, no. 6, 55 p. (In Russian).
8. Tulin D.V. Searching for Seigniorage, or Easy Paths to Prosperity (Review of Debates on Bank of Russia Policy). Dengi i Kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2014, no. 12, pp. 6–16. (In Russian).
9. Tsukhlo S. Optimal Rouble Exchange Rate for Russia’s Industrial Sector. Monitoring Ekonomicheskoy Situatsii v Rossii = Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook, 2017, no. 10, pp. 11–15. (In Russian).
10. Global Financial Stability Report April 2015: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks. IMF, 2015. Available at: http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2016/12/31/Navigating-Monetary-Policy-Challenges-and-Managing-Risks (accessed June 2018).
11. Global Financial Stability Report April 2018: A Bumpy Road Ahead. IMF, 2018. Available at: http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2018/04/02/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-April-2018 (accessed June 2018).
12. Mishkin F.S. Exchange-Rate Pegging in Emerging-Market Countries? National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998, 27 p. Available at: https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/fmishkin/PDFpapers/IF98.pdf (accessed May 2018).
13. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K. The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 73–96. DOI: 10.1257/jep.9.4.73
14. Shiller PE Ratio by Month. Available at: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table?f=m (accessed June 2018).
15. Smialek J. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan Sees Bubbles in Stocks and Bonds. Bloomberg, 2018, 1 February. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/former-fed-chair-alan-greenspan-sees-bubbles-in-stocks-and-bonds (accessed Febrary 2018).
16. Statistical Release: BIS Global Liquidity Indicators at end-December 2017, 2018, April, 7 p. Available at: https://www.bis.org/statistics/gli1804.pdf (accessed August 2018).
17. World Economic Outlook. IMF, 2018, July. Available at: http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/07/02/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2018 (accessed June 2018).
Financing The article is prepared on the basis of the results of studies performed at the expense of budget funds for the state task to the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

ISSN (Print) 1815-9834
ISSN (Online) 2587-5957

Minakir Pavel Aleksandrovich,
Editor-in-Chief
Tel.: +7 (4212) 725-225,
Fax: +7 (4212) 225-916,
 
Samokhina Lyudmila, Executive Editor
Tel.: +7 (4212) 226-053
Fax: +7 (4212) 225-916,
 
Editors
Tel.: +7 (4212) 226-053,
Fax: +7 (4212) 225-916,
 
To Editorial Staff of “Spatial Economics”
Economic Research Institute FEB RAS
153 Tikhookeanskaya St., Khabarovsk, RUSSIA, 680042

 

 

Creative Commons License
Unless otherwise noted, content on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License