| In the section | Articles |
| Title of the article | Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District) |
| Pages | 36–51 |
| Author 1 | Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS 29 Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 Leader Research Associate Ural Federal University 19 Mira Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-9794-4774 |
| Author 2 | Aleksandr Nikolaevich Tyrsin Doctor of Engineering, Associate Professor, Professor Ural Federal University 19 Mira Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 Senior Research Associate Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS 29 Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-2660-1221 |
| Author 3 | Maria Sergeevna Pecherkina Research Assistant Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS 29 Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-5583-0966 |
| Author 4 | Natalia Leonidovna Nikulina Candidate of Economics, Sector Manager Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS 29 Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, Russia, 620002 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-6882-3172 |
| Abstract | Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence. The authors view welfare in the region from two viewpoints: an individual and a territory, which implies definition and estimation of risks for each of them. The goal of the study is to estimate the risks to welfare of an individual and a territory, which means solving the following tasks: 1) defining the category ‘risk to welfare of an individual and a territory’; 2) estimating integral risks for the Ural Federal District’s territories; 3) estimating the probability of integral risk reaching critical zone. The methods of study used by the authors: indicative analysis, integration of objective function through Monte Carlo statistical trials method. The object of the study is the regions of the Ural Federal District (subjects of the Russian Federation), timeframe – 2001–2016, information mass – official data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the calculations, the authors conclude the following: all regions of the Ural Federal District are in the high-risk zone and have low probability of reaching critical risk zone. The results can be used in managing the risks through development of roadmaps on minimization of risk and probability of aggravation. The proposed measures allow decreasing the integral risk and increasing welfare level of an individual and a territory |
| Code | 338.246:346.548 |
| JEL | C10, D60, D80 |
| DOI | 10.14530/se.2018.2.036-051 |
| Keywords | welfare of an individual and a territory ♦ risk ♦ probability ♦ region ♦ assessment method ♦ roadmap ♦ Ural Federal District |
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| For citation | Kuklin A.A., Tyrsin A.N., Pecherkina M.S., Nikulina N.L. Risk Diagnostics and Management for Welfare in Regions (in the Example of the Ural Federal District) Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2018, no. 2, pp. 36–51. DOI: 10.14530/se.2018.2.036-051. (In Russian). |
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| Financing | The study was conducted with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation, project No. 14-18-00574 ‘Information-analytical system ‘Anti-crisis: diagnostics of the regions, risk assessment and scenario forecast aimed at preservation and reinforcement of economic security and increasing Russian welfare’ (IAS ‘Anti-crisis’) |
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