In the section Surveys
Title of the article Models of Russian Economic Growth: Personal Consumption Trends
Pages 150-168
Author 1 Leonid Markovich Grigoryev
Сandidate of Economics, Tenured Professor, Scientific Adviser
Department of World Economy, HSE
17 Malaya Ordynka St., Moscow, Russia, 119017
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ORCID: 0000-0003-3891-7060
Author 2 Pavlyushina Victoria Alexandrovna
Post-graduate, Intern-Researcher
The Banking Institute of the Higher School of Economics
4 Maly Gnezdnikovsky per., Moscow, Russia, 125009
Deputy Head of the Department for Research Studies
The Analytical Centre for the Government of Russian Federation,
12 Prospect Akademika Sakharova, Moscow, Russia, 107078
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ORCID: 0000-0002-7125-6287
Author 3 Vlada Vladimirovna Brilliantova
Junior Consultant
PEMANDU Associates
Moscow, Russia
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ORCID: 0000-0002-9818-7373
Author 4 Nesipli Mavlit-Alievna Kulaeva
Master of Economics
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Leninskie Gory, 1-46, Moscow, Russia, 119991
Advisor of the Department of Macroeconomic Research
The Analytical Centre for the Government of Russian Federation,
12 Prospect Akademika Sakharova, Moscow, Russia, 107078
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ORCID: 0000-0002-7229-4963
Abstract One of the most significant factors of the newest Russian economy crisis, which escalated in 2015–2016, was the decrease of real income and the following reduction of consumer demand of households. The situation on the consumers’ market started to change in 2017 despite the stagnation and the continuing decrease of population income. This paper shows that during 2018 the trends of increase in consumer demand, showing up as part of positive dynamics in retail, have consolidated both in terms of growth rate and in their role in restoration of retail and consumer demand structures. This is proven by progressive increase of the non-food goods share in total retail turnover. It is also shown that the trend of restoration of consumer demand and retail turnover up until now has been unstable and influenced by macroeconomic and institutional shocks. This is confirmed by the negative reaction from the consumer demand on pessimistic prospects of further decrease of real income as a result of pension and tax reforms of mid-2018. The data on changing situation in consumer demand in the second half of 2018 shows no fundamental reasons, which could have guaranteed the irreversibility of changes of consumer model of household behavior and as such the restoration of economic growth model based on generation of internal consumer demand. The stagnation of real population income remains the main issue
Code 331+338
JEL D14, O11, O15
DOI 10.14530/se.2019.2.150-168
Keywords personal consumption ♦ households ♦ real income ♦ retail turnover ♦ durable goods ♦ food ♦ goods groups ♦ growth rates
Download SE.2019.2.150-168.Grigoryev.pdf
For citation Grigoryev L.M., Pavlyushina V.A., Brilliantova V.V., Kulaeva N.M. Models of Russian Economic Growth: Personal Consumption Trends. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2019, vol. 15. no. 2, pp. 150–168. DOI: 10.14530/se.2019.2.150-168. (In Russian).
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