| In the section | Articles |
| Title of the article | Development of the Gas Market of the Eastern Regions of Russia |
| Pages | 46-58 |
| Author 1 |
Anatoly Vladimirovich Lagerev Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Senior Research Fellow Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 130, Lermontov St., Irkutsk, Russia, 664033 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0001-6169-2977 |
| Author 2 |
Valentina Nikolaevna Khanaeva Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Research Fellow Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 130, Lermontov St., Irkutsk, Russia, 664033 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0003-4277-6723 |
| Abstract | The article presents the dynamics of the gas market development for two scenarios of the economy of the Eastern regions of Russia (Eastern Siberia, Far East). We have determined rational volume of natural gas required to meet the domestic demand of the Eastern regions for gas and the volume of its exports to the NEA countries. Based on the economic estimation of efficiency of different options of export (pipeline gas, LNG), we give the prognosis of the dynamics and structure of gas export from the Eastern regions of the country. Based on the calculations using the dynamic optimization model of the country’s fuel and energy industry the following conclusions can be made for the Eastern regions of Russia till 2035: the volume of gas consumption may increase 2.1–2.3 times up to 31–35 billion m3; the export of natural gas may increase to 70–71 billion m3 at projected ‘global’ prices; the gas extraction volume may constitute 107–113 billion m3 annually. Additionally, estimating the efficiency reserve of the Russian gas export allowed prioritizing, among new export projects in the East of Russia, LNG plants (Sakhalin-LNG-2, Far Eastern LNG) and the pipeline ‘Power of Siberia’, which would allow exporting 38 billion m3 of gas to China through the pipeline and 32–33 billion m3 of LNG to the markets of the NEA countries |
| Code | 622.279.23/4:620.9:338.5 |
| JEL | L71, R11, Q37 |
| DOI | 10.14530/se.2019.3.046-058 |
| Keywords | natural gas ♦ LNG ♦ Eastern regions ♦ long-term forecast ♦ scenarios ♦ production ♦ consumption ♦ export ♦ markets ♦ prices ♦ efficiency ♦ North-East Asia |
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| For citation | Lagerev A.V., Khanaeva V.N. Development of the Gas Market of the Eastern Regions of Russia. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2019, vol. 15. no. 3, pp. 46–58. DOI: 10.14530/se.2019.3.046-058. (In Russian). |
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| Financing | The research was carried out under State Assignment, Project 174.2 (reg. No. ААА-А17-117030310435-0) of the Fundamental Research of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences |