| In the section | Articles |
| Title of the article | Fertility and Female Unemployment in Russian Regions |
| Pages | 20-51 |
| Author | Boris Ivanovich Alekhin Doctor of Economics, Professor, Independent Researcher This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-9571-4836 |
| Abstract | This paper examines economic and demographic determinants of fertility, using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. Panel co-integration technique is used to find out whether there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and these determinants. We show that the growth of TFR is due largely to the growth of nuptiality rate, old age demographic burden, female wages, domestic labor migration and female unemployment rate, while the decline is associated with female economic activity and urbanization. In 2000–2011 the combined effect of stimulants prevailed over the combined effect of inhibitors, and TFR tended to grow. In 2011–2021 the negative impact of female economic activity and urbanization increased, and TFR began to decline. Pairwise Granger causality test shows that female unemployment, economic activity and urbanization cause fertility, but not vice versa, while causation is bidirectional in other cases. These results support some theoretical predictions and empirical evidence and contradict some others |
| Code | 330+338+378 |
| JEL | J13, C22, 040, 057 |
| DOI | https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2023.1.020-051 |
| Keywords | fertility, unemployment, region, Russia |
| Download | SE.2023.1.020-051.Alekhin |
| For citation | Alekhin B.I. Fertility and Female Unemployment in Russian Regions. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2023, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 20–51. https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2023.1.020-051 (In Russian) |
| References | 1. Adsera A. Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries. American Economic Review, 2005, vol. 95, no. 2, pp. 189–193. 2. Aksoy C.G. The Effects of Unemployment on Fertility: Evidence from England. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2016, vol. 16, issue 2, pp. 1123–1146. 3. Alekhin B.I. Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth in Russia. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2021, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 57–80. (In Russian). 4. Andersen S.H., Ozcan B. The Effects of Unemployment on Fertility. Advances in Life Course Research, 2021, vol. 49. 100401. 5. Becker G.S. A Treatise on the Family. Harvard University Press, 1981, 424 p. 6. Becker G.S. An Economic Analysis of Fertility. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. NBER. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960,pp. 209–240. 7. Becker G.S. Lewis H.G. On The Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of Political Economy, 1973, vol. 82, pp. S279–S288. 8. Becker G.S. The Economic Approach to Human Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976, 314 p. 9. Becker G.S., Glaeser E.L., Murphy K.M. Population and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, 1999, vol. 89, no. 2, pp. 145–149. 10. Bongaarts J. The Fertility-Inhibiting Effects on the Intermediate Fertility Variables. Studies in Family Planning, 1982, vol. 13, no. 6/7, pp. 179–189. 11. Bryushinkina A.A., Grozina A.A. Econometric Analysis of the Influence of Socio-Economic Factors on the Birth Rate in the Regions of the Russian Federation. Khronoekonomika = HronoEconomics, 2019, no. 2 (15), pp. 53–57. (In Russian). 12. Davis K., Blake J. Social Structure and Fertility: An Analytic Framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1956, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 211–235. 13. De Laat J., Sevilla-Sanz A. The Fertility and Women’s Labor Force Participation Puzzle in OECD Countries: The Role of Men’s Home Production. Feminist Economics, 2011, vol. 17, issue 2, pp. 87–119. 14. Del Bono E.D., Weber A., Winter-Ebmer R. Fertility and Economic Instability: The Role of Unemployment and Job Displacement. Journal of Population Economics, 2015, vol. 28, pp. 463–478. . 15. Engle R., Granger C.W.J. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 1987, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 251–276. 16. Farrar D.E., Glauber R.R. Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis: The Problem Revisited. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1967, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 92–107. 17. Granger C.W.J. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 1969, vol. 37, issue 3, pp. 424–438. 18. Hondroyiannis G. Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data. Bank of Greece Working Paper No. 96, 2009, 46 p. 19. Ivershin A.V., Kogevina S.I. Analysis of Fertility Factors in Russia. Interakspo Geo-Sibir = Interexpo GEO-Siberia, 2021, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 252–256. (In Russian). 20. Konig-Castillo D.M., Ott J., Konig D., Hager M., Kahr M.K., Dorffner G. Influence of Obesity and Unemployment on Fertility Rates: A Multinational Analysis of 30 Countries from 1976 to 2014. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2022, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 1–10. 21. Kornstad T., Ronsen M. Women’s Wages and Fertility Revisited Evidence from Norway. European Journal of Population, 2018, vol. 34, pp. 491–518. 22. Kravdal O. The Impact of Individual and Aggregate Unemployment on Fertility in Norway. Demographic Research, 2002, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 263–294. 23. Lunyova I.S., Ivanova О.Yu., Khardikov А.V., Ivanova Т.S., Abrosimova N.V. Demo-graphic Indicators of Fertility and Medico-Social Influenses on Them. Zhurnal Akusherstva i Zhenskih Bolezney = Journal of Obstetrics and Womans Diseases, 2017, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 40–48. (In Russian). 24. Mishra V., Nielsen I., Smyth R. The Relationship between Female Labour Force Participation and Fertility in G7 Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Granger Causality. Monash University Department of Economics Discussion Papers. No. 13/06, 2005, 24 p. Available at: (accessed February 2023). 25. Myagotina E.D., Nevezhin V.P. Influence of the Level of Unemployment on Birth Rate in Russia. Mezhdunarodnyy Nauchno-Issledovatelskiy Zhurnal = International Research Journal, 2020, no. 4 (94), part 2, pp. 30–35. (In Russian). 26. Pailhe A., Solaz A. The Influence of Employment Uncertainty on Childbearing in France: A Tempo or Quantum Effect? Demographic Research, 2012, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 1–40. 27. Pedroni P. Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels. Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels. Edited by B.H. Baltagi, T.B. Fomby, R.C. Hill. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2000, pp. 93–130. 28. Pedroni P. Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, vol. 83, no. 4, pp. 727–731. 29. Soboleva S.V., Smirnova N.E., Chudaeva O.V. Demographic Security of Russia: Regional Measures, Results Estimation. Mir Novoy Ekonomiki = The World of New Economy, 2016, no. 4, pp. 142–153. (In Russian). 30. Wesolowski K., Ferrarini T. Family Policies and Fertility: Examining the Link between Family Policy Institutions and Fertility Rates in 33 Countries 1995–2010. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 2018, vol. 38, no. 11/12, pp. 1057–1070. 31. Willis R.J. A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 1973, vol. 81, no. 2, pp. S14–S64. |
| Financing | |
| Submitted | 27.02.2023 |
| Approved after reviewing | 02.03.2023 |
| Accepted for publication | 13.03.2023 |
| Available online | 31.03.2023 |