Scientific Journal SPATIAL ECONOMICS - Assessment of BRIICS Energy Transition Policies

In the section	Articles
Title of the article	Assessment of BRIICS Energy Transition Policies
Pages	86-105
Author	Maria Marlein Warong PhD Student National Research University Higher School of Economics 136 Rodionova St., Nizhny Novgorod, 60309, Russian Federation Saint Petersburg State University 7-9 Universitetskaya Embankment, Saint Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0009-0002-2964-8196
Abstract	Achieving a global energy transition requires multidimensional policy designs, but the universal approach to international benchmarking often fails in emerging nations with diverse institutional trajectories and a heavy reliance on fossil fuels. This study systematically assesses the long-run macroeconomic performance of integrated energy policy portfolios – market-based, non-market-based, and technology support – in the expanded BRIICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa). The policy assumption is that non-market-based mandates are more effective than MB instruments in structurally immature markets. This study uses the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Pooled Mean Group (DCCE-PMG) estimator to neutralize unobserved global shocks synthesized with Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for country-specific structural policy decomposition. This study uses the extended dataset from 1996 to 2024 to decisively capture post-pandemic structural shifts and resolve prevailing econometric flaws. The empirical DCCE-PMG estimations show that only stringent non-market-based command-and-control regulations have a statistically significant positive long-run macroeconomic impact on renewable electricity deployment, while market-based and technology support mechanisms remain structurally insignificant without foundational enforcement. The GRA decomposition makes explicit this macroeconomic relationship, revealing profound intra-panel heterogeneity: India is leading a balanced comprehensive transition; China capitalizes on strategically state-capitalist asymmetry; Indonesia is dangerously over-reliant on technology support; Russia has profound institutional voids in technology support; Brazil is vehemently resisting market-based integration because of agricultural fragmentation; and South Africa is collapsing catastrophically in non-market-based regulation. These findings conclusively refute the notion of a universal global policy benchmarking and establish that the long-term sustainability of macroeconomies depends on localized institutional capacity-building and tailored non-market-based regulatory structures that are appropriate for specific structural circumstances
Code	339+338
JEL	Q42, Q48, C23, O44
DOI	https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.2.086-105
Keywords	energy transition policy, dynamic panel econometrics, policy mix coherence, macroeconomic structural shifts, expanded BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa)
Download	SE.2026.2.086-105.Warong.pdf
For citation	Warong M.M. Assessment of BRIICS Energy Transition Policies. Prostran-stvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2026, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 86–105. https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.2.086-105
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Financing
Submitted	08.04.2026
Approved after reviewing	21.05.2026
Accepted for publication	25.05.2026
Available online	30.06.2026