| In the section | Articles |
| Title of the article | Regional Differentiation of Inflation in Russia under the Conditions of Economic Structural Reconstruction |
| Pages | 55-72 |
| Author | Nadezhda Nikolaevna Mikheeva Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Laboratory of Regional Economics Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 47 Nakhimovsky Pr., Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-3852-1499 |
| Abstract | The article examines the dynamics of inflation processes in Russian regions in the period 2021–2025 under the conditions of economic restructuring, sanctions restrictions, and the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. Based on the analysis of consumer price dynamics, it is shown that after 2021, a stable negative relationship has formed between the level of per capita monetary income and inflation: prices grow faster in low-income regions, which exacerbates socio-economic inequality. It has been determined that the main factors shaping interregional differences in consumer prices are the outstripping rates of growth in prices for food products and services. Based on statistical data for 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and using econometric panel data models, the factors of interregional differentiation in consumer price growth rates are estimated. It is shown that external shocks distort the effect of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; in 2022–2024, the increase in the key rate did not lead to a decrease in inflation, but had a negative impact on economic dynamics. The key factor determining regional inflation rates is the Central Bank’s key rate, whose impact has a delayed effect and manifests itself with a one-year lag. Statistically significant factors for all regions include: the dynamics of real incomes, poverty levels, the share of social spending in regional budgets, and the growth of lending to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. For regions with incomes below the Russian average, significant factors differentiating inflation rates include the dynamics of real incomes and poverty levels |
| Code | 338.57.055.2 |
| JEL | R11, R12, E52 |
| DOI | https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.3.055-072 |
| Keywords | inflation, regions, Bank of Russia key rate, household income, consumer spending, poverty level, panel data model |
| Download | |
| For citation | Mikheeva N.N. Regional Differentiation of Inflation in Russia under the Conditions of Economic Structural Reconstruction. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2026, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 55–72. https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.3.055-072 (In Russian) |
| References | 1. Monetary Policy: Evidence from Indonesian Provinces. Journal of Economic Structures, 2022, vol. 11. 1. 2. Arnold I.J.M., Vrugt E.B. Firm Size, Industry Mix and the Regional Transmission of Monetary Policy in Germany. German Economic Review, 2004, vol. 5, issue. 1, pp. 35–59. 3. Badylevich R.V., Verbinenko E.A. Methodological Approaches to Assessing the Impact of Monetary Policy Instruments on Regional Economic Processes. Vestnik Altayskoy Akademii Ekonomiki i Prava [Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law], 2023, no. 11, pp. 334–342. (In Russian). 4. Baranov A.O., Volkova Ye.A., Somova I.A. Specific Features Driving Inflation for Consumer Goods and Services in the Modern Russian Economy. Zhurnal Sibirskogo Federalnogo Universiteta. Seriya: Gumanitarnye Nauki = Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities and Social Sciences, 2025, no. 18 (6), pp. 1198–1210. (In Russian). 5. Demidova O.A., Karnaukhova E.E., Korshunov D.A., Myasnikov A.A., Seregina S.F. Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2021, no. 6, pp. 77–102. (In Russian). 6. Drobyshevsky S.M., Perevyshin Yu.N., Sinelnikov-Murylev S.G., Trunin P.V. Reasons for Accelerating Inflation in the Russian Economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2025, no. 1, pp. 5–31. (In Russian). 7. Furceri D., Mazzola F., Pizzuto P. Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Across US States. Papers in Regional Science, 2019, vol. 98, issue. 5, pp. 1861–1891. 8. Imam P.A., Poghosyan T. Navigating the Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks. IMF. Working Paper No. 212, 2025, 43 p. 9. Kirillov A.M. Spatial Analysis of Food Inflation in Russian Regions. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2017, no. 4, pp. 41–58. (In Russian). 10. Mogilat A.N. Overview of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Channels and Instruments of Their Analysis in the Bank of Russia. Denigi i Kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2017, no. 9, pp. 3–9. (In Russian). 11. Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Russia: Features of Interaction. Scientific Report. Edited by A.A. Shirov. Moscow, 2026, 404 p. (In Russian). 12. Napalkov V., Novak A., Shulgin A. Variations in the Effects of a Single Monetary Policy: The Case of Russian Regions. Denigi i Kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2021, no. 1, pp. 3–45. (In Russian). 13. Nelyubina A.S. Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy in Russian Regions. Innovatsii i Investitsii = Innovation & Investment, 2022, no. 2, pp. 135–138. (In Russian). 14. Perevyshin Yu., Egorov D. Influence of Common Factors on Russian Regional Inflation. Ekonomicheskoe Razvitie Rossii = Russian Economic Developments, 2016, vol. 23, no. 10, pp. 44–50. (In Russian). 15. Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China. Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University. CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/1. Available at: (accessed March 2026). 16. Shirov A.A., Gusev M.S., Nekrasov F.O. The Nature of Inflation in the Modern Russian Economy and Its Impact on Economic Growth. Problemy Prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2025, no. 2 (209), pp. 5–19. (In Russian). 17. Shirov A.A., Potapenko V.V. The Russian Consumption Paradox. EKO = ECO, 2020, vol. 50, no. 6, pp. 8–25. (In Russian). 18. Sinelnikov-Murylev S.G., Perevyshin Yu.N., Trunin P.V. Inflation Differences in the Russian Regions: An Empirical Analysis. Ekonomika Regiona = Economy of Region, 2020, vol. 16, issue 2, pp. 479–493. (In Russian). 19. Zhemkov M.I. Regional Effects of Inflation Targeting in Russia: Factors of Heterogeneity and Structural Inflation Rates. Voprosy Ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2019, no. 9, pp. 70–89. (In Russian). 20. Zvereva V.A. Regional Heterogeneity of the Russian Economy and the Operation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Bank of Russia, 2024, 58 p. Available at: (accessed February 2026). (In Russian). 21. Zvereva V.A., Demidova O.A., Korshunov D.A., Myasnikov A.A. Impact of Intraregional Income Inequality on the Operation of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Denigi i Kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2024, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 3–31. (In Russian). |
| Financing | |
| Submitted | 23.06.2026 |
| Approved after reviewing | 20.08.2026 |
| Accepted for publication | 24.08.2026 |
| Available online | 30.09.2026 |