| In the section | Articles |
| Title of the article | Causal Evaluation of the Impact of Urban Redevelopment on Moscow’s Urban Environment in the Context of Commercial Gentrification |
| Pages | 128-150 |
| Author 1 | Kamilla Yusefovna Timerbulatova Assistant Lecturer Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics 1-46 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0003-0629-0988 |
| Author 2 | Alisa Alekseevna Liaskalo Student Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics 1-46 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0009-0009-0875-2200 |
| Author 3 | Stanislav Viktorovich Spektor Junior Researcher, PhD Student Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics 1-46 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ORCID: 0000-0002-1287-3867 |
| Abstract | Renovation and integrated territorial development programs have covered hundreds of former industrial sites in Moscow, yet their impact on business has not been measured. We estimate how the completion of new housing construction on such sites changes the revenue and profit margins of incumbent firms, as well as the size of the local market. The method is a doubly robust difference-in-differences estimator with staggered adoption, applied to a firm-level panel and to a hexagonal grid of the city for 2012–2024. The effect is heterogeneous and depends on the initial density of the area. Profit margins decline by 0.4–0.6 percentage points after redevelopment regardless of location. Revenue falls by 3–4% inside the Moscow Ring Road (MKAD), while outside it revenue grows by 9–28% with spatial decay away from the site. The number of active firms in a redevelopment zone grows by 20 on average, and the effect strengthens over time – from 7 firms in the year of construction completion to 50 firms five years later, with no signs of sectoral displacement |
| Code | 332.05 |
| JEL | R23, R33, R58, L80 |
| DOI | https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.3.128-150 |
| Keywords | redevelopment, gentrification, firms, local market, Moscow |
| Download | |
| For citation | Timerbulatova K.Yu., Liaskalo A.A., Spektor S.V. Causal Evaluation of the Impact of Urban Redevelopment on Moscow’s Urban Environment in the Context of Commercial Gentrification. Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2026, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 128–150. https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2026.3.128-150 (In Russian) |
| References | 1. Behrens K., Boualam B., Martin J., Mayneris F. Gentrification and Pioneer Businesses. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2024, vol. 106, issue 1, pp. 119–132. 2. Callaway B., Sant’Anna P.H.C. Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, vol. 225, issue 2, pp. 200–230. 3. Couture V., Handbury J. Neighborhood Change, Gentrification, and the Urbanization of College Graduates. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2023, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 29–52. 4. de Chaisemartin C., D’Haultf?uille X. Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects. American Economic Review, 2020, vol. 110, no. 9, pp. 2964–2996. 5. Glaeser E.L., Kim H., Luca M. Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2018, vol. 108, pp. 77–82. 6. Glaeser E.L., Luca M., Moszkowski E. Gentrification and Retail Churn: Theory and Evidence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2023, vol. 100. 103879. 7. Goodman-Bacon A. Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics, 2021, vol. 225, issue 2, pp. 254–277. 8. Gorbachevskaya E.Yu. Narratives of Western and Russian Gentrification: General and Special. Zhilishchnye Strategii = Russian Journal of Housing Research, 2021, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 151–170. (In Russian). 9. Hackworth J., Smith N. The Changing State of Gentrification. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 2001, vol. 92, issue 4, pp. 464–477. 10. Kawaguchi D., Kawata K., Okamoto C. Urban Redevelopment Program and Demand Externality. IZA. Discussion Paper No. 16925, 2024, 49 p. Available at: (accessed July 2026). 11. Ley D. Alternative Explanations for Inner-City Gentrification: A Canadian Assessment. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1986, vol. 76, issue 4, pp. 521–535. 12. Makhrova A.G., Golubchikov O.Yu. Russian Town under Capitalism: Social Transformation of Intraurban Space. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya = Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5, Geography, 2012, no. 2, pp. 26–31. (In Russian). 13. Meltzer R. Gentrification and Small Business: Threat or Opportunity? Cityscape, 2016, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 57–86. 14. Meltzer R., Capperis S. Neighbourhood Differences in Retail Turnover: Evidence from New York City. Urban Studies, 2017, vol. 54, issue 13, pp. 3022–3057. 15. Pennington K. Does Building New Housing Cause Displacement?: The Supply and Demand Effects of Construction in San Francisco. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021. 16. Rossi-Hansberg E., Sarte P.-D., Owens R. Housing Externalities. Journal of Political Economy, 2010, vol. 118, no. 3, pp. 485–535. 17. Sant’Anna P.H.C., Zhao J. Doubly Robust Difference-in-Differences Estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 2020, vol. 219, issue 1, pp. 101–122. 18. Schuetz J. Do Art Galleries Stimulate Redevelopment? Journal of Urban Economics, 2014, vol. 83, pp. 59–72. 19. Smith N. New Globalism, New Urbanism: Gentrification as Global Urban Strategy. Antipode, 2002, vol. 34, issue 3, pp. 427–450. 20. Smith N. Toward a Theory of Gentrification: A Back to the City Movement by Capital, not People. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1979, vol. 45, issue 4, pp. 538–548. 21. Vavilina N.D., Shpigunova Yu.M. Gentrification in Russia as a Social Process and a Social Problem. Razvitie Territoriy = Territory Development, 2024, no. 1 (35), pp. 37–49. (In Russian). 22. Zukin S., Trujillo V., Frase P., Jackson D., Recuber T., Walker A. New Retail Capital and Neighborhood Change: Boutiques and Gentrification in New York City. City & Community, 2009, vol. 8, issue 1, pp. 47–64. |
| Financing | |
| Submitted | 15.07.2026 |
| Approved after reviewing | 01.09.2026 |
| Accepted for publication | 02.09.2026 |
| Available online | 30.09.2026 |